ISLAMABAD, June 23, 2026 — Pakistan has entered what its disaster authority is calling a "critical" weather window, with the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) issuing a nationwide alert on Sunday warning of thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, urban flooding, and an elevated risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) across the country's northern regions over the next 12 to 24 hours.

The alert identified Hunza and Skardu areas in the mountainous Gilgit-Baltistan region in the north and the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in the northwest among the most vulnerable areas to a possible climate disaster. Authorities also warned of flooding in capital Islamabad, and other urban areas, including Rawalpindi and its adjoining areas. Provincial and district administrations have been placed on high alert and directed to keep their drainage systems clear.

A Nation on Edge

The warning comes as Pakistan braces for a likely fourth consecutive year of punishing monsoon, which is expected to arrive later this month. The stakes are enormous: last year, monsoon rains in Pakistan killed more than 1,000 people, including 275 children, and displaced three million from their homes.

But it was the historic floods in 2022—mainly caused by melting glaciers and submerging nearly a third of the country—that put Pakistan on a global climate crisis watch. Those floods killed nearly 1,700 people, displaced more than 30 million, caused $14.8 billion in property damage, and wiped out $15.2 billion from Pakistan's gross domestic product.

The Glacial Threat

Pakistan contributes less than 1 percent of global emissions, yet remains among the five countries most affected by climate change. In Gilgit-Baltistan, temperatures this year reached a record 48.5 degrees Celsius (119.3 degrees Fahrenheit), breaking a previous high set in 1971. The heat has accelerated glacial melt, swelling and bursting lakes across the ecologically sensitive region.

According to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), melting glaciers across Pakistan's Hindu Kush, Himalayas, and Karakoram mountain ranges have formed more than 3,000 glacial lakes in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Of those, 33 have been assessed as vulnerable to hazardous outbursts, with more than 7.1 million people living around them at risk.

GLOFs release millions of cubic meters of water and debris within hours, destroying bridges, farms, and entire communities downstream. The speed and destructive power of these events make them particularly deadly for populations living in mountain valleys.

The Preparedness Gap

In partnership with the UNDP, Pakistan in 2017 launched the scaling-up of the Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Risk Reduction project, known as GLOF-II, covering 24 valleys across 15 districts in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. However, experts warn that the scale of coverage is widely misunderstood.

Zakir Hussain, director general of the Gilgit-Baltistan Disaster Management Authority, told Al Jazeera that the GLOF-II project covered only 16 selected valleys, not Gilgit-Baltistan as a whole, and within those valleys, only a limited number of sites. In many of the areas hit hardest in 2025, including Ghizer, Diamer, and parts of Hunza, no early warning system existed at all.

"The problem there was the absence of coverage altogether," Hussain stated bluntly.

The Funding Shortfall

The international community's response to Pakistan's climate crisis has fallen short of promises. Pakistan hosted a donor conference in Geneva in January 2023, where about $11 billion was pledged by various countries and international financial institutions for flood recovery. But according to the UN's humanitarian coordination agency, OCHA, only about $4.5 billion had been delivered by June 2025, largely for housing, transport, and flood risk management projects.

Hussain was direct about what that shortfall represents: "It is clear that the parties to the conference are not shouldering their responsibility when it comes to the transfer of funds, the transfer of technology, and the capacity building of countries suffering the consequences of carbon emissions by the developed world."

Government Preparations

In response to the current alert, the NDMA has advised tourists and travelers to avoid unnecessary travel during heavy rains. People have also been asked to check weather forecasts and road conditions before visiting the northern regions, where landslides could cause closure of some roads.

Provincial and district administrations have been directed to:

• Keep drainage systems clear to prevent urban flooding
• Establish emergency response teams on high alert
• Pre-position rescue equipment in vulnerable areas
• Set up temporary shelters for potential evacuees
• Coordinate with local communities for early warning dissemination

The Climate Reality

Pakistan's situation exemplifies the broader climate crisis facing developing nations. Despite contributing minimally to global greenhouse gas emissions, the country bears a disproportionate burden of climate impacts. The combination of rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and glacial melt creates a perfect storm of vulnerability.

As the monsoon season approaches, millions of Pakistanis face an uncertain future. The nationwide alert is a stark reminder that climate change is not a distant threat but a present reality, demanding urgent action both domestically and internationally. For now, the country waits and watches the skies, hoping that this year's monsoon will be less devastating than the last.