ISLAMABAD, June 23, 2026 — Pakistan enters the latter half of 2026 with its biggest political question still unanswered: what will happen to PTI founder Imran Khan and his party's role in the country's political future? As analysts assess the political landscape, a consensus is emerging that the current "hybrid system" of governance is growing stronger, with little indication of major change before the next general election expected in 2029.

Ahmad Bilal Mehboob, chairman of the Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (PILDAT), sees Pakistan's "hybrid system" growing stronger in 2026. He told The Express Tribune that the hybrid model of governance has become more formalized and is expected to further consolidate in the coming year.

"This trend, visible over the past year through changes in the judiciary and political landscape, is unlikely to be temporary and points towards further consolidation of a security-centric governance model," Mehboob stated.

The Government's Consolidation

The government, backed by the establishment, introduced several constitutional amendments in 2025 that resulted in major structural changes to governance and power centers. These changes have strengthened the executive's hand while limiting the space for opposition politics.

Senior political analyst Zaigham Khan described 2025 as a "fortunate year" for the government, largely due to favorable international developments. He said regional events—particularly actions by India under Modi and Israel under Netanyahu—made Pakistan increasingly significant in security terms, especially for the Arab world.

This shift, he said, positioned Pakistan as a net security provider and an emerging middle power. "The key challenge for 2026 will be converting these geostrategic gains into tangible economic benefits," Khan noted.

Civil Liberties Under Stress

However, not all observers view these developments positively. Haris Khalique, secretary-general of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan, warned that increased concentration of power in 2026 could seriously undermine civil liberties.

"As we enter 2026, democratic backsliding continues, while good governance, rule of law, and protection of fundamental rights remain under stress," Khalique stated. "Nothing will change overnight, but the powers-that-be must realise that excessive internal control and suppression of dissent rarely benefit any state or society."

Khalique pointed out that 44.7 percent of Pakistan's population lives below the poverty line, while 88 percent earn less than a living wage. He argued that security, governance, and development policies require major restructuring, adding that territorial security cannot be achieved without ensuring human security.

Imran Khan's Uncertain Future

Regarding Imran Khan's future, analysts predict little change in 2026—or even over the next four to five years—unless there is a major shift, either through external pressure or a strategic decision by the PTI to operate within the existing political framework.

His supporters were hoping for relief when Donald Trump returned to the White House in 2025. However, those hopes proved short-lived, as Trump never mentioned Imran, let alone exerting pressure on the government or the powers-that-be for his release.

Mehboob believes the PTI leader's future largely depends on his political choices. "If he continues protests and confrontation, compromise is unlikely. However, opting for dialogue could reduce pressure on both him and his party," he explained.

He added that the next general election, expected in 2029 or slightly earlier, would be the real test of Khan's political future. "There is little indication of a major change before then."

PTI's Political Space

On PTI's political space, Mehboob noted that as long as the Shehbaz Sharif government and the establishment remain aligned, the government is likely to continue consolidating power. PTI's confrontational strategy, he said, limits its prospects.

Meanwhile, Shehbaz Sharif's backing of the hybrid model, along with his performance in foreign policy, the economy, law and order, and reforms, currently positions him as the stronger option. The PTI has been "seriously considering" exiting the system over what it calls the "denial" of political space, according to senior leader and former National Assembly speaker Asad Qaiser.

Nawaz Sharif's Role

Although Nawaz Sharif still appears to be in charge of the PML-N, he maintained a relatively low profile in 2025. Some observers believe the three-time former prime minister has already played his political innings and is no longer central to national politics.

Zaigham disagrees, asserting that Nawaz Sharif will remain politically relevant in 2026. He argued that Nawaz continues to be the central figure within the PML-N, with key party decisions made under his leadership. While not seeking public office, Zaigham said Nawaz Sharif is focused on safeguarding the party's legacy and grooming Maryam Nawaz for leadership.

Mehboob believes Nawaz Sharif is proceeding cautiously. "For now, he appears careful, avoiding any move that could disrupt the process or destabilise his brother Shehbaz Sharif's government," he explained. "He added that Nawaz Sharif could re-enter active politics when he judges the timing to be appropriate."

The Path Forward

As Pakistan navigates these complex political dynamics, the need for meaningful political dialogue becomes increasingly urgent. Khalique emphasized that while those in power must initiate the process, the PTI also needs to demonstrate a willingness to engage with other political forces.

The coming months will test whether Pakistan's political actors can find common ground or whether the current trajectory of consolidation and confrontation will continue. With significant economic challenges, climate vulnerabilities, and regional security concerns, the stakes for Pakistan's political future have never been higher.