ISLAMABAD: Pakistan's electricity generation infrastructure experienced a precipitous decline of 2.5 percent in June 2026 compared to the corresponding period last year, primarily attributable to disruptions in liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply from Qatar amid the war-like situation engulfing the Middle East region.

Generation Mix Analysis

According to comprehensive data disseminated by the Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA-G), total electricity generation stood at 13,413 gigawatt-hours (GWh) in June 2026, down from 13,744 GWh in June 2025. Delivered energy was recorded at 13,066 GWh at an average cost of Rs8.9138 per kWh, compared to 13,310 GWh at Rs7.6800 per kWh in the corresponding month last year.

Hydel Power Sector: Hydroelectric generation diminished by 3 percent to 5,242 GWh in June 2026, accounting for 39.03 percent of total generation, compared to 5,410 GWh in June 2025. The decline is primarily attributed to a technical fault at the Tarbela generation facility, Pakistan's largest hydroelectric power station.

Coal-Based Generation: Electricity generation based on indigenous coal decreased by 10 percent to 1,358 GWh from 1,510 GWh. However, generation from imported coal rose by 21.6 percent to 1,699 GWh, up from 1,397 GWh in the corresponding month last year, reflecting the government's attempts to compensate for LNG shortfalls.

Gas-Based Generation: Generation from indigenous gas declined by 10.5 percent to 867 GWh in June 2026 at Rs13.6820 per kWh, compared to 968 GWh in June 2025. More alarming, RLNG-based generation dropped sharply to 1,480 GWh (11.02 percent share) in June 2026 from 2,216 GWh in June 2025—a staggering 33 percent reduction. Meanwhile, its cost escalated to Rs35.51 per kWh from Rs21.87 per kWh, reflecting an unprecedented increase of 62 percent.

The Qatar LNG Crisis

The shortage stems from QatarEnergy's declaration of force majeure on LNG export contracts following Iranian drone strikes on the Ras Laffan Industrial City in March 2026. This cascade of disruptions has forced Pakistan to seek expensive spot market cargoes while grappling with soaring international LNG prices exacerbated by the Middle East conflict.

Industry analysts warn that without a comprehensive energy diversification strategy and resolution of the Qatar supply impasse, Pakistan's power sector will continue to face volatility in both generation capacity and tariff structures, with profound implications for economic growth and industrial competitiveness.

The government faces mounting pressure to expedite alternative energy arrangements and negotiate a resolution with QatarEnergy to restore normal LNG flows, as the country navigates through one of its most challenging energy crises in recent history.